Blockchain technology still needs 5-10 years to have a transformative impact

The latest 2019 Hype Cycle for Blockchain Technologies released by Gartner, the world’s leading information technology research and consulting firm, shows that the blockchain has burst into a trough. The market will emerge from this phase in 2021 as technology advances and the unique practical applications of blockchain continue to gain popularity.

Technologies and markets in the trough of the bust were muted by failed experiments and impossibility (see Figure 1).

Avivah Litan, distinguished analyst and research vice president at Gartner, said: “Blockchain technology has not yet reached a mature stage, and most enterprises’ blockchain projects are still in experimental mode. At present, blockchain is still unable to enable various business ecosystems to realize digital business. change, and it cannot be done until at least 2028. Gartner predicts that blockchain technology and operations will not be fully scaled until 2028.”

Figure 1. Gartner’s 2019 blockchain technology maturity curve

Source: Gartner (October 2019)

Gartner believes that for blockchain to become mainstream, users must be able to choose the appropriate platform, smart contract language, system interfaces and consensus algorithms with confidence. In addition, users must not worry about how to achieve interoperability with partners who use different blockchain platforms in the project.

Ms Litan said: “We see many developments in blockchain technology that will change the current paradigm. By 2023, blockchain platforms will be scalable and interoperable, and will support smart contract portability and cross-border Chain functionality. This technology also enables trusted private transactions by providing the necessary data confidentiality. With the development of technology in this field, our decentralized network with blockchain technology as the main body, the realization of Web 3.0 will be getting closer.”

She also noted that “permissioned blockchains will gradually integrate with public blockchains and leverage shared services while supporting the membership, governance and operating model needs of permissioned blockchains.”

To learn more about it, read the full Gartner report: Hype Cycle for Blockchain Technologies, 2019. To learn more about technology-driven digital innovation, check out the Gartner special report, “Hype Cycles: Five Priorities Shape the Further Evolution of Digital Innovation.” The research aims to help organisations identify opportunities to create new business and operating models.

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